WAG-THE-BEAR: THE WINTER ‘FREEZE’ MAY BE SHORT ON THE EASTERN FRONT

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Paradigm shifts on the geopolitical landscape have been accelerated by Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. The West’s involvement in Ukraine is at least twenty years old and may take another twenty as far as the military industrial complex is concerned. On Sep. 21 President Putin announced the partial mobilization of 300,000 reservists. Then the Nord Stream pipe lines and the Kerch Bridge were sabotaged. In April 2022 Europol warned that NATO weapons aid to Ukraine is finding its way across the continent. Under the cover of tracking arms shipments an advance party of US and NATO military is moving into western Ukraine. Mid November the Russians completed a tactical withdrawal from the Kherson region west of the Dnieper River. With winter fast approaching there is speculation of a temporary freeze of the conflict.

Nov. 15, 2022 Professor Glenn Diesen of the University of South-Eastern Norway talks to Colonel Douglas McGregor: The calm before the storm in Ukraine.

Amidst speculations of a temporary freeze of the conflict in the winter months, Colonel McGregor is emphasizing this must be seen as a calm before the storm, rather than a looming peace. The Duran have commented over the last few days on the fact that the winter circumstances are an advantage for Russia.

Nov. 14, 2022 Alex Christoforou: Istanbul attack. FTX scandal grows. NYT, six month freeze. Russia winter advantage (as of the 18:00 mark).

The conclusion is that the Russians will consolidate their assets east of the Dnieper River after the withdrawal from Kherson, until let’s say the new year. But not much longer. An early spring offensive is likely in the offing.

Nov. 15, 2022 Alex Christoforou: US and Russia negotiate in Ankara. Biden predicts conflict freeze. Lavrov, G20 fake illness. 

Previously in Wag-the-Bear

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